Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44ef…bb1f
sports · 145 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$110 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$113 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 86
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage16d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$61
14 days−$94
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 73¢ 81¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+12%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Top Esports Challenger 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Eintracht Spandau 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs UNiTY esports 65¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Anyones Legend 71¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BIG 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner DN SOOPers 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Karmine Corp 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner ThunderTalk Gaming 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Eintracht Spandau 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner Gen.G Global Academy 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 3 Winner BIG 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner RED Canids 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Vitality 71¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Team Vitality 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner JD Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$6 -62%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $49 +$17 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $22 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$5 -65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$15 +72%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 10 $6 −$2 -42%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $30 +$7 +23%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$7 -89%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $9 +$16 +171%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $11 −$9 -82%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $8 −$7 -92%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$3 -80%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$6 +47%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $7 −$2 -34%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $24 −$8 -32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $12 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $17 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $12 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $16 +$12 +74%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$1 -27%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$94
crypto 3% −$3
other 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 25¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 78¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 73¢ $15 1h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL WLGaming Esports 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $5 1h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 99¢ $0 1h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 21¢ $3 2h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 75¢ $6 2h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 47¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 21¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St SELL GenOne 72¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY GenOne 51¢ $5 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $37 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 15h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $10 15h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $6 15h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $57 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 82¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +10.6% +0.1% 41% 38% -19.8%
≤30d 144 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 37% -20.3%
≤90d 144 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 37% -20.3%
all 144 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 37% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 37% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 36% -27.9%
15% -31.6% 30% -34.9%
20% -38.3% 22% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.56 · official $24.56 (match) · 331 history records