Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44f0…432c sports 1663 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,720 (+5%) realized +$10,473 · open +$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%798W / 859L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$955est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days+$1,424
14 days+$5,133
30 days+$8,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$8,580
other 8% +$1,842
world 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -10.5% -19.0% 42% 42% +5.0%
≤30d 194 +4.0% -5.9% 51% 51% +14.7%
≤90d 564 +7.3% -2.9% 53% 53% +2.4%
all 1657 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 48% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 48% -5.0%
10% -16.5% 47% -14.1%
15% -24.5% 45% -22.4%
20% -31.9% 42% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$116 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,128
Realized+$10,473
Unrealized+$247
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses798 / 859
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$955
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1657 / 1663
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Over 44¢ 56¢ $554 $711 +$157 (+28%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 33¢ 50¢ $82 $125 +$42 (+52%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 37¢ 46¢ $92 $115 +$22 (+24%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 43¢ 52¢ $64 $77 +$13 (+20%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ 44¢ $57 $68 +$11 (+19%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 58¢ 61¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $180 +$174 +97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $24 +$31 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $358 −$358 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $43 +$51 +119%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $545 −$545 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $227 +$173 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $356 +$294 +83%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $114 +$136 +119%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $445 −$445 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $217 +$203 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $512 +$478 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $19 +$19 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $402 −$402 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $734 −$734 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1,856 +$3,066 +165%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $57 +$71 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $241 +$156 +65%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $277 +$291 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 43¢ $66 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 33¢ $84 3h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ $58 4h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $563 4h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 44¢ $2 24h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 58¢ $31 27h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $180 30h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $43 40h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $358 47h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $5 2d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $14 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $5 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $5 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $24 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $20 2d
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 36¢ $13 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $19 3d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $114 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $545 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $356 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $227 4d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 35¢ $89 4d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $92 4d
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $97 4d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $102 4d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $117 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 51¢ $217 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $171 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 45¢ $734 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1,856 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,128.10 · official $1,191.15 · 3500 history records