Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
44 0x44f1…d841 politics 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$164 (+0%) realized +$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$26
politics 41% −$23
sports 6% +$206
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +12.3% +1.6% 10% 8% -9.3%
all 117 +12.1% +1.4% 14% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 11% -9.2%
10% -8.3% 8% -17.9%
15% -17.2% 7% -25.8%
20% -25.3% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$541) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×20.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage116d
Avg bet$395
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $384 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $380 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $427 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $342 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $755 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $386 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $316 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $788 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,375 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $814 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $378 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $376 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $377 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $332 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 2h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 12h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $68 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $68 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 22d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $365 22d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $366 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $310 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.97 · official $63.97 (match) · 367 history records