Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f5…63ac crypto 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$294 (-6%) realized −$870 · open +$576
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%241W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$411
7 days−$525
14 days−$1,116
30 days−$1,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$877
other 21% +$571
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -69.8% -72.6% 15% 11% -45.8%
≤30d 774 -39.9% -45.6% 31% 26% -31.6%
≤90d 774 -39.9% -45.6% 31% 26% -31.6%
all 774 -39.9% -45.6% 31% 26% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.6% 26% -31.6%
10% ← realistic here -50.8% 21% -38.1%
15% -55.6% 17% -44.1%
20% -59.9% 14% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,772
Realized−$870
Unrealized+$576
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses241 / 533
Open positions2
Markets (closed)774 / 583
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 774 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1,169 $1,746 +$577 (+49%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $26 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,772.46 · official $1,772.46 (match) · 3500 history records