Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44f6…663f sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$238 (-4%) realized −$239 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$201
14 days−$774
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$510
other 41% +$222
politics 3% +$8
crypto 2% −$103
world 1% +$10
culture 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -93.5% -94.1% 0% 0% -97.8%
≤30d 30 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 47% -26.4%
≤90d 44 -10.3% -18.8% 59% 55% -14.2%
all 48 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 54% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 54% -14.7%
10% -23.7% 44% -22.8%
15% -31.1% 35% -30.3%
20% -37.9% 23% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$106 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage157d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $147 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 −$20 -81%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $114 +$29 +25%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $94 +$41 +43%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $69 +$49 +71%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $86 +$34 +39%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $144 −$144 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $95 +$49 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $83 −$83 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $158 +$30 +19%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $123 +$71 +58%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $179 +$83 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $150 +$57 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $216 +$80 +37%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $185 −$149 -81%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 +$58 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $160 +$259 +162%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $236 −$236 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $103 +$92 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $192 +$98 +51%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $245 +$206 +84%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 18 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $100 +$31 +31%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $112 +$14 +12%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $202 −$156 -78%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $209 +$16 +8%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $67 +$44 +65%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $51 −$35 -69%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $188 +$58 +31%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 03 $121 +$13 +11%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $187 +$121 +64%
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $91 +$10 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 05 $174 +$8 +4%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $20 +$35 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $103 −$103 -100%
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Jan 22 $56 +$23 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $148 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $79 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 7¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $25 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $114 7d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $134 7d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $94 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $118 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $69 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $120 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $86 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $144 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $144 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $95 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $97 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $152 8d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 8d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $158 8d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $194 8d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $123 8d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $83 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $179 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $207 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $150 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.80 · official $196.80 (match) · 107 history records