Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f8…3d88 sports 162 markets active 12d ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-6%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%67W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$50
world 14% +$3
other 9% −$25
crypto 6% −$9
culture 5% +$4
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 58 -14.9% -23.0% 52% 48% -13.2%
all 162 -20.8% -28.3% 41% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 36% -16.6%
10% -35.2% 25% -24.6%
15% -41.4% 21% -31.8%
20% -47.2% 15% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses67 / 95
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage157d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova May 06 $5 $0 -2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 06 $47 −$9 -19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Peyton Stearns vs Janice Tjen May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek May 06 $10 −$5 -49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 06 $12 +$5 +44%
Francavilla: Max Schoenhaus vs Zdenek Kolar May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda May 06 $5 +$2 +46%
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita May 06 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 +$3 +59%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 +$4 +72%
Jiujiang: Lizette Cabrera vs Zongyu Li May 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Viktoria Morvayova May 06 $4 −$3 -75%
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Kyoka Okamura May 06 $2 −$1 -57%
Brazzaville: Brandon Perez vs Younes Laaroussi May 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Santos: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Facundo Mena May 05 $7 −$3 -48%
Brazzaville: Jody Maginley vs Matteo Covato May 05 $15 +$1 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson May 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor May 05 $5 −$4 -84%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Zakharova vs Dayana Yastremska May 05 $10 +$5 +52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Lucia Bronzetti May 05 $5 +$3 +53%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Noemi Basiletti vs Daria S May 05 $10 +$9 +93%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Leolia May 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Wuxi: Hayato Matsuoka vs Maximus Jones May 05 $15 +$8 +55%
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere May 05 $4 −$4 -89%
Wuxi: Jason Jung vs Andre Ilagan May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Jiujiang: Anastasia Zolotareva vs Mei Yamaguchi May 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Moyuka May 04 $7 +$2 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig May 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa May 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Juan Martin vs Titouan Dro May 04 $10 +$2 +18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Ella Sei May 04 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 4? May 04 $5 −$4 -80%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo De May 04 $15 +$3 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane P May 04 $20 +$5 +27%
Jiujiang: Zongyu Li vs Wushuang Zheng May 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Jiujiang: En-Shuo Liang vs Yufei Ren May 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Jiujiang: Cody Wong vs Xinxin Yao May 04 $4 +$1 +20%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu May 04 $14 +$2 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 04 $1 $0 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs May 04 $3 $0 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 04 $5 +$2 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 04 $5 +$2 +44%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Oksana Selekhmeteva 31¢ $2 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Oksana Selekhmeteva 31¢ $3 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 31¢ $5 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Dalma Galfi 39¢ $12 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Dalma Galfi 31¢ $10 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson SELL Patrick Kypson 1¢ $0 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson BUY Patrick Kypson 46¢ $10 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $32 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar BUY Matteo Arnaldi 94¢ $30 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar SELL Jaume Munar 6¢ $1 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 48¢ $10 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar SELL Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $5 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar BUY Matteo Arnaldi 65¢ $7 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Peyton Stearns vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 16¢ $2 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek BUY Sara Bejlek 43¢ $5 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek SELL Laura Siegemund 56¢ $6 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek BUY Laura Siegemund 48¢ $5 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Leolia Jeanjean 100¢ $17 52d
Francavilla: Max Schoenhaus vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Zdenek Kolar 32¢ $3 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda SELL Zachary Svajda 41¢ $7 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 27¢ $5 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Leolia Jeanjean 69¢ $7 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Leolia Jeanjean 68¢ $5 52d
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita SELL Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $8 53d
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 53d
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 53d
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita BUY Hayu Kinoshita 65¢ $5 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records