Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f9…c357 weather 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$210 (-12%) realized −$194 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%105W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$59
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$187
crypto 21% −$14
politics 7% −$57
sports 3% +$67
other 2% −$31
finance 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +11.0% +0.4% 53% 53% -24.1%
≤30d 109 -30.7% -37.3% 32% 32% -21.5%
≤90d 281 -24.4% -31.6% 37% 32% -20.7%
all 281 -24.4% -31.6% 37% 32% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 32% -20.7%
10% -38.2% 31% -28.3%
15% -44.1% 30% -35.2%
20% -49.6% 26% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses105 / 176
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)281 / 283
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 24? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 24 $8 +$20 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 23 $129 −$57 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $4 +$18 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$7 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 +$5 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $44 −$31 -71%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 +$6 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$6 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$8 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.28 (match) · 639 history records