Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
44 0x44f9…3dca crypto 307 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,027 (-6%) realized −$1,015 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%157W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$1,021
14 days−$1,312
30 days−$1,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1,791
sports 32% +$127
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -13.7% -22.0% 47% 47% -31.3%
≤30d 306 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 47% -18.3%
≤90d 306 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 47% -18.3%
all 306 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 47% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 47% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 37% -26.1%
15% -34.1% 28% -33.2%
20% -40.6% 24% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$35 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$1,015
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses157 / 149
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 307
History coverage20d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 44¢ 38¢ $88 $76 −$12 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$18 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$19 -49%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$16 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$10 +103%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $31 −$22 -71%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $31 −$31 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $40 −$23 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$12 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$25 -75%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $21 +$12 +60%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $125 −$58 -46%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $12 +$47 +384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $115 −$104 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $113 −$77 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$51 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $37 −$20 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 44¢ $90 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $89 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.10 · official $76.10 (match) · 933 history records