Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44fe…5c40 crypto 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$696 (+2%) realized +$720 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%124W / 45L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$77
14 days+$269
30 days+$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$437
crypto 30% +$184
sports 6% +$230
politics 5% −$453
finance 3% +$88
world 0% −$155
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.7% -2.5% 76% 71% -5.8%
≤30d 45 +1.3% -8.4% 69% 56% -2.7%
≤90d 169 +5.1% -4.9% 73% 38% -8.5%
all 169 +5.1% -4.9% 73% 38% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 38% -8.5%
10% -14.0% 24% -17.3%
15% -22.3% 18% -25.3%
20% -29.9% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$98 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized+$720
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses124 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)169 / 175
History coverage78d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $308 $202 −$106 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $109 +$39 (+56%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Austria 81¢ 82¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $64 +$10 (+19%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 16¢ 35¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+119%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 +$41 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$34 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $251 +$16 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$69 +134%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $87 +$13 +14%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $151 +$41 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $155 −$110 -71%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $173 +$27 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $134 +$66 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 +$20 +13%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $103 −$85 -82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $465 +$35 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 +$104 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +83%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $78 +$22 +29%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $359 +$40 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 +$28 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $53 −$52 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $53 −$52 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $289 +$131 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $162 +$138 +85%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $382 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $80 +$20 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $73 −$27 -37%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $58 +$42 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $321 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 27 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $12 −$6 -44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $64 +$36 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 25 $312 +$75 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $214 +$26 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $619 −$421 -68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 22 $639 +$13 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $516 −$510 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $105 −$104 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 18m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 81¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $69 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 25h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $151 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 87¢ $87 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $134 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $94 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.60 · official $515.90 (match) · 861 history records