Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4501…7342 crypto 924 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%432W / 491L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$19
14 days−$16
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$175
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -21.7% -29.2% 46% 28% -10.3%
≤30d 328 -15.1% -23.2% 48% 39% -12.9%
≤90d 923 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 44% -12.3%
all 923 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 44% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 42% -20.7%
15% -31.9% 40% -28.3%
20% -38.6% 38% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses432 / 491
Open positions1
Markets (closed)923 / 924
History coverage44d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 923 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 89¢ 88¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.03 · official $85.83 · 2233 history records