Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4502…bc32 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
other 24% +$5
finance 5% +$6
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 9% -8.9%
≤90d 13 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 8% -8.9%
all 42 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -8.4%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage459d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $68 −$6 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $13 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $51 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $40 +$6 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 +$3 +184%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $11 +$1 +10%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.17ºC in April 2025? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 05 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 26 $12 $0 -1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 22 $0 $0 -100%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $45 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $11 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $13 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $11 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $39 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.88 · official $44.88 (match) · 151 history records