Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
45 0x4502…9eed sports 514 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,287 (+11%) realized +$6,337 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%247W / 262L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$605est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$1,866
14 days+$4,024
30 days+$5,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$5,059
other 31% +$607
crypto 2% −$18
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +8.4% -2.0% 37% 20% +6.5%
≤30d 425 +14.4% +3.5% 48% 28% -0.7%
≤90d 459 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 29% -0.7%
all 509 +18.9% +7.6% 49% 29% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 29% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 20% -10.0%
15% -12.1% 16% -18.7%
20% -20.7% 12% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$14 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,337
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses247 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$605
Open positions1
Markets (closed)509 / 514
History coverage110d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $300 −$13 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $408 −$60 -15%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $800 +$190 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $131 −$13 -10%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 −$19 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $199 −$8 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 −$4 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $86 +$158 +184%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 −$7 -52%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $216 +$194 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$1 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $385 −$23 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $403 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$20 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$15 +15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $601 +$30 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $600 −$17 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $304 −$51 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $240 −$6 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $627 +$9 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 +$11 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$18 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $366 +$87 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$13 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$1 -9%
AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$13 -87%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $14 +$2 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $356 +$129 +36%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $310 +$313 +101%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $592 −$29 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$15 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $143 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $40 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $0 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $4 14m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $200 14m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $100 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $99 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $159 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $205 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $189 48m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 49m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $42 55m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 55m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 55m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $989 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $398 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $91 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $52 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $258 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $28 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 3h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 5h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 2¢ $0 5h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 8¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 2573 history records