Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x4504…e13d other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$63 (+14%) realized +$70 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$74
14 days+$78
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$23
tech 24% −$2
sports 17% +$20
crypto 14% −$2
finance 11% +$7
world 3% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +84.4% +66.8% 80% 80% +39.5%
≤30d 8 +58.4% +43.3% 75% 62% +26.0%
≤90d 8 +58.4% +43.3% 75% 62% +26.0%
all 24 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 29% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 29% +13.1%
10% -19.4% 29% +2.2%
15% -27.2% 25% -7.6%
20% -34.3% 21% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×14.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.49 per $1 lost it wins $7.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage213d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 94¢ $38 $63 +$25 (+66%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $52 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 13¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +253%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 02 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +7%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 30 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 20 $1 $0 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 17 $1 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 15 $1 $0 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 14 $67 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 44m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 44m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 29¢ $14 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $57 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $54 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 89¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $53 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 84¢ $20 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 74¢ $26 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 48¢ $10 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 48¢ $1 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 77¢ $30 15d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 84¢ $33 15d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $34 15d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 15d
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 93¢ $19 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 SELL Yes $0 176d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 SELL Yes $0 176d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 SELL Yes $0 176d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 SELL Yes $1 176d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 SELL Yes $0 176d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 SELL Yes $1 176d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 179d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 179d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.17 · official $170.17 (match) · 68 history records