Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x4507…aca0 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$35
politics 14% −$5
sports 6% −$34
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 16% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 121 -3.9% -13.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 124 -3.8% -12.9% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage93d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $12 +$14 +109%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $251 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 29 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $523 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $256 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 29 $233 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $251 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $238 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 4h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 23h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $12 33h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 45h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $114 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 19d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $27 20d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $7 20d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $7 20d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.75 · official $174.75 (match) · 361 history records