Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4507…dc26 other 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,370 (-1%) realized −$1,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%43W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$202
politics 41% −$98
sports 12% −$1,385
culture 3% −$108
world 2% −$13
crypto 1% +$4
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 90 -12.5% -20.8% 4% 1% -11.5%
all 161 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -10.2%
10% -18.1% 10% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 9% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,820) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$24 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses43 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $419 $419 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $3,430 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $2,135 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $796 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,041 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $522 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,595 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,798 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,469 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,810 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $4,855 −$5 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $166 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,993 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $5,232 −$6 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $893 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $525 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $732 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 24 $46 +$38 +83%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,334 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $3,910 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,436 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,675 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,487 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,039 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $199 22h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $754 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $756 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $785 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $786 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $813 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $814 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $795 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $796 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $659 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $661 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $522 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $522 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $669 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $670 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $700 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $701 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $419 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,116 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,101 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.98 · official $418.98 (match) · 510 history records