Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4508…aca2 crypto 529 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$184 (+1%) realized +$169 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%306W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$15
crypto 26% +$102
other 5% +$1
sports 1% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 100 -7.1% -16.0% 90% 1% -12.6%
≤90d 115 -11.4% -19.8% 83% 4% -14.1%
all 528 -1.0% -10.5% 58% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 41% -7.5%
10% -19.0% 41% -16.3%
15% -26.9% 41% -24.4%
20% -34.0% 40% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$11,775
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses306 / 222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)528 / 529
History coverage128d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $11,760 $11,775 +$15 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,311 16m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 47m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $199 56m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $243 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $293 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $178 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $222 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $222 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $145 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $259 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $279 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $229 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $450 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $478 17h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $271 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,774.53 · official $11,774.53 (match) · 1912 history records