Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x450a…0712 sports 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-4%) realized −$107 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%250W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$30
14 days−$67
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$56
other 8% −$57
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +7.6% -2.6% 52% 52% -4.3%
≤30d 542 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 46% -13.5%
≤90d 542 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 46% -13.5%
all 542 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 46% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -21.8%
15% -28.4% 45% -29.4%
20% -35.5% 44% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses250 / 292
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions9
Markets (closed)542 / 551
History coverage29d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 76¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+63%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 45¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Over 51¢ 44¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Under 29¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Yes 24¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 32¢ 12¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Veronika Erjavec 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Chwalinska vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ymer vs. Fery: Match O/U 22.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Sierra 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Ivan Erslan win by KO or TKO? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Taylor Fritz 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$9 +103%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +107%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 +$12 +177%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +223%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$5 +112%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +91%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $4 +$3 +67%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +63%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 +$2 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +62%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 +$3 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +132%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$3 +196%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 +$2 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Altmaier/Fonseca vs Nouza/Oberlei Jun 13 $3 +$3 +111%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +99%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bellucci vs. Kukushkin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +126%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $7 7m
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $17 9m
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 29¢ $4 39m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 48¢ $8 41m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 32¢ $7 45m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 46m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 51m
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 51m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $13 1h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $7 3h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 42¢ $3 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $8 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $2 4h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $5 5h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $9 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $8 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 5h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.02 · official $57.02 (match) · 875 history records