Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x450e…4fdd crypto 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$248 (-0%) realized +$12 · open −$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%242W / 176L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day120.9pace
Fees−$915est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$4,457
crypto 27% −$7
other 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 35% -18.2%
≤30d 418 +0.4% -9.2% 58% 37% -6.8%
≤90d 418 +0.4% -9.2% 58% 37% -6.8%
all 418 +0.4% -9.2% 58% 37% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 37% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -15.7%
15% -25.8% 29% -23.8%
20% -33.1% 20% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$181 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,059
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses242 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$915
Open positions3
Markets (closed)418 / 387
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$267
Trades / day120.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 93¢ 90¢ $966 $941 −$25 (-3%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $113 $117 +$4 (+3%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 52¢ 0¢ $239 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 22 $0 +$12 +6955%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 11? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 11? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13? Jun 22 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 10? Jun 22 $112 −$212 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET Jun 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P Jun 22 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13? Jun 22 $264 −$264 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $186 +$236 +127%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $534 +$275 +52%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $293 +$149 +51%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $249 −$245 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $111 +$49 +44%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $174 −$172 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $530 −$527 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $83 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $481 +$366 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $249 +$161 +65%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $288 +$64 +22%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $224 +$109 +49%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $111 −$109 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $356 −$352 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $577 +$276 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $982 −$970 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $342 +$144 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $7 −$2 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 49¢ $8 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $19 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 49¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 53¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 52¢ $47 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 52¢ $145 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 48¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 46¢ $11 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 50¢ $65 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 50¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $12 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 50¢ $72 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $37 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 47¢ $7 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 48¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $17 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 41¢ $17 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 42¢ $88 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 40¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $7 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $48 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $14 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 100¢ $255 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,059.07 · official $1,058.49 (match) · 3500 history records