Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4512…5d41 sports 1401 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,227 (-4%) realized −$2,216 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%479W / 918L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$429est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$612
14 days+$565
30 days−$8,562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,138
crypto 15% −$141
other 10% −$107
finance 5% −$23
world 2% −$62
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +43.6% +29.9% 49% 45% +28.1%
≤30d 539 -45.9% -51.0% 17% 17% -62.7%
≤90d 788 +2.9% -6.9% 32% 31% -13.5%
all 1397 +0.7% -8.9% 34% 32% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 32% -11.9%
10% -17.6% 32% -20.4%
15% -25.6% 31% -28.1%
20% -32.9% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$26 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$2,216
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses479 / 918
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$429
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1397 / 1401
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 19¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$58 +184%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 21 $21 +$19 +93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $18 +$31 +171%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -98%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 +$74 +242%
Junya Itō: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$85 +342%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$101 +344%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $28 +$26 +94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $28 +$11 +40%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $39 −$37 -95%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $54 +$46 +85%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $33 +$67 +202%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $31 −$11 -35%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $49 +$71 +146%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$31 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $75 +$133 +176%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$34 +114%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 +$85 +276%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $55 +$94 +172%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 +$56 +220%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$76 +306%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$78 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 +$29 +105%
Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 −$19 -41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $36 +$70 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 +$41 +691%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $34 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 15¢ $27 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $18 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $21 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $51 10h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 91¢ $105 16h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $31 16h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $109 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 19h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $8 20h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $25 20h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $21 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 20h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $30 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $21 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $7 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 30h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals SELL Yes $4 40h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 40h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $19 41h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $1 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $39 41h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 42h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.59 · official $20.59 (match) · 3500 history records