Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4512…e645
crypto · 266 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$160 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$160 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses138 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage32d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 266 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? Up 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 49% -15.8%
≤30d 177 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 266 -7.0% -15.8% 52% 46% -21.4%
all 266 -7.0% -15.8% 52% 46% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 46% -21.4%
10% -23.9% 38% -28.9%
15% -31.3% 17% -35.8%
20% -38.0% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.33 (match) · 619 history records