Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4515…0db9 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$318
crypto 34% −$1,410
sports 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -94.7% -95.2% 5% 0% -53.2%
≤30d 25 -71.8% -74.5% 24% 4% -20.5%
≤90d 51 -56.7% -60.9% 37% 2% -19.8%
all 70 -59.9% -63.7% 33% 1% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 1% -18.0%
10% -67.2% 0% -25.8%
15% -70.4% 0% -33.0%
20% -73.3% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$39 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 47
Open positions45
Markets (closed)70 / 54
History coverage112d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $2 $26 +$24 (+1069%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $18 +$16 (+720%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $18 +$16 (+708%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+631%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+234%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+217%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $7 +$4 (+199%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+109%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $45 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$9 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $8,054 −$70 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 13 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 06 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22? Apr 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 16? Apr 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 10? Apr 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 8? Apr 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 30? Mar 29 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $187 −$187 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $187 −$187 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 18d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 19d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 20d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 21d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $21 29d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 29d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,984 33d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,994 33d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 33d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 35d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 40d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 42d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 44d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 98¢ $59 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $59 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $59 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $59 69d
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 73d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $58 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $58 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $58 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.12 · official $204.14 (match) · 486 history records