Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4516…5d1a
crypto · 76 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$84 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$112
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)63 / 76
History coverage63d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 13 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$2
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+112%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$10 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Benoît Saint Denis be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31 May 30 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $15 −$9 -61%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 23 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +26%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Apr 23 $5 +$8 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: April Apr 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11? Apr 12 $15 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 41% −$43
other 25% +$6
sports 13% −$30
world 12% +$14
politics 9% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 46% +0.4%
≤30d 25 -40.2% -45.9% 24% 24% -25.2%
≤90d 63 -32.2% -38.7% 37% 33% -33.8%
all 63 -32.2% -38.7% 37% 33% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 33% -33.8%
10% -44.5% 29% -40.1%
15% -49.9% 21% -45.9%
20% -54.8% 16% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.98 · official $111.99 (match) · 198 history records