Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4517…f700 sports 271 markets active 13h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77,770 (+22%) realized +$77,770 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%127W / 144L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1,327per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$3,948est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,534
7 days+$4,265
14 days+$4,602
30 days+$36,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$77,574
crypto 9% −$13,639
other 7% +$11,157
finance 1% −$473
culture 0% −$2
world 0% −$10
tech 0% −$103
politics 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +134.0% +111.7% 60% 60% +20.2%
≤30d 50 +24.7% +12.8% 52% 48% +25.3%
≤90d 214 -15.5% -23.6% 39% 36% +1.4%
all 271 +10.0% -0.4% 47% 43% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 43% +8.6%
10% -10.0% 41% -1.8%
15% -18.7% 40% -11.3%
20% -26.6% 36% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,673) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,644 vs −$932 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77,770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses127 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,948
Open positions0
Markets (closed)271 / 271
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,327
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 271 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,535 −$1,534 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $12 +$31 +262%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4,238 −$4,177 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3,037 +$1,356 +45%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $924 +$6,569 +711%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $806 +$2,223 +276%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $373 +$1,355 +364%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $231 +$143 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $890 −$890 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1,019 −$811 -80%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,185 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $900 +$600 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,600 +$2,122 +82%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$333 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,724 +$2,268 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3,753 +$3,752 +100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $411 −$400 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1,560 +$160 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $289 −$289 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 16 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2,379 −$2,379 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 16 $2,218 −$2,218 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6,050 +$4,020 +66%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $420 −$420 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,499 +$3,632 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1,137 −$863 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1,040 −$994 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1,133 +$1,013 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $324 +$809 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$17 +22%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 11 $590 −$590 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 11 $900 −$900 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2,843 −$2,843 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $3,832 −$3,832 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10,172 +$1,864 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2,997 +$3,145 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $1,019 +$581 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9,950 +$17,378 +175%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $1,601 +$3,108 +194%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $1,594 +$103 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $600 −$520 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,069 +$9,758 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 26¢ $31 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 28¢ $1,313 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 28¢ $1 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 28¢ $185 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 28¢ $3 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 28¢ $3 13h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $12 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4,238 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $4,393 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,012 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2,025 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7,484 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,028 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $90 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $411 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $513 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $716 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $909 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 90¢ $130 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 90¢ $250 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 90¢ $439 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $373 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $374 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $231 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $39 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $61 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1961 history records