Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4518…6844 crypto 145 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$258 (-3%) realized −$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%65W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$690
other 4% −$246
sports 2% +$469
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -9.1% -17.8% 38% 38% -11.6%
≤30d 145 -17.2% -25.1% 45% 34% -15.1%
≤90d 145 -17.2% -25.1% 45% 34% -15.1%
all 145 -17.2% -25.1% 45% 34% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 34% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 25% -23.3%
15% -38.8% 19% -30.7%
20% -44.8% 12% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$29 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses65 / 80
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage18d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$45 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $108 +$33 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$60 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$8 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 +$31 +142%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$117 +194%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$333 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $68 +$30 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 879 history records