Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x451a…3b01 weather 822 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-1%) realized −$132 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%607W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$427
14 days−$731
30 days−$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -25.8% -32.9% 20% 20% -98.3%
≤30d 196 +4.5% -5.4% 84% 44% -13.1%
≤90d 794 -6.2% -15.1% 76% 20% -10.6%
all 794 -6.2% -15.1% 76% 20% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 20% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 9% -19.1%
15% -30.7% 6% -27.0%
20% -37.5% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$716
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses607 / 187
Open positions28
Markets (closed)794 / 822
History coverage62d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? No 55¢ 56¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? No 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? No 76¢ 75¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 28? No 88¢ 100¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 28? No 55¢ 54¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 29? No 72¢ 70¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29? No 66¢ 62¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? No 53¢ 50¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 29? No 64¢ 64¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 27? No 60¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27? No 61¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? No 65¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? No 51¢ 34¢ $39 $26 −$13 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 28? No 68¢ 68¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? No 80¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29? No 68¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? No 66¢ 68¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 29? No 63¢ 58¢ $21 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? No 63¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? No 72¢ 67¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 28? No 67¢ 60¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? No 68¢ 56¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? No 71¢ 52¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? No 55¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? No 77¢ 56¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 +$6 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? Jun 23 $133 −$127 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $153 −$151 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $154 −$151 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 19 $9 +$7 +75%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +62%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 19 $22 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? Jun 19 $27 +$17 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $53 +$41 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 19 $219 +$48 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $203 +$64 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $96 −$95 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $206 −$203 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $108 −$106 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $162 −$159 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$9 +80%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $34 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $205 +$117 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $272 +$52 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $242 +$141 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $208 +$117 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $325 −$321 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 17 $276 −$271 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$52 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$26 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $152 +$51 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $203 +$61 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$15 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$55 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$52 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $203 +$66 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$16 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? BUY No 68¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 64¢ $37 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 29? BUY No 72¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? BUY No 65¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 68¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 55¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? BUY No 50¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY No 53¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 55¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY No 56¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $35 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 63¢ $22 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $41 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 26¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 13¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 68¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY No 71¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 77¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? BUY No 80¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 61¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 68¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 65¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 69¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 55¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $715.85 · official $715.87 (match) · 3190 history records