Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x451d…f594
crypto · 87 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$65 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$68 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day389.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 32¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$10 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$10 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $14 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -9.4% -18.1% 49% 45% -16.4%
≤30d 86 -9.4% -18.1% 49% 45% -16.4%
≤90d 86 -9.4% -18.1% 49% 45% -16.4%
all 86 -9.4% -18.1% 49% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover389.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 45% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 38% -24.4%
15% -33.1% 27% -31.7%
20% -39.6% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.28 · official $2.28 (match) · 400 history records