Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x451f…31b8 crypto 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (362 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$111 (-5%) realized −$105 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate36%82W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day362.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$90
weather 37% −$26
sports 6% −$31
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (362 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -9.2% -17.9% 36% 17% -16.7%
≤30d 226 -9.2% -17.9% 36% 17% -16.7%
≤90d 226 -9.2% -17.9% 36% 17% -16.7%
all 226 -9.2% -17.9% 36% 17% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover362.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 17% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 9% -24.7%
15% -32.9% 6% -32.0%
20% -39.5% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses82 / 144
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)226 / 229
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day362.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 26 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 26 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 42°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 26 $9 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? Jun 26 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? Jun 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? Jun 26 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 8m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 42°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.64 · official $49.64 (match) · 1118 history records