Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4520…187f other 145 markets active 5d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$9
politics 36% −$8
sports 7% −$1
crypto 3% −$7
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -3.2% -12.4% 7% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 135
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage118d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $112 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $375 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $169 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $96 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $106 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 25d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 463 history records