Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4521…65f5 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+9%) realized +$99 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 40L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$143
14 days+$143
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$141
crypto 42% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +44.2% +30.5% 62% 62% +26.8%
≤30d 8 +44.2% +30.5% 62% 62% +26.8%
≤90d 31 -37.3% -43.3% 29% 29% +1.0%
all 78 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 49% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 49% -0.1%
10% -27.3% 41% -9.6%
15% -34.4% 29% -18.3%
20% -40.8% 26% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 40
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage198d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$41 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 +$72 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$32 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $58 +$34 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 14? Apr 13 $24 −$19 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? Apr 13 $22 +$19 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 14? Apr 13 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 12 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 12 $40 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 12 $25 +$8 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 12 $4 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $26 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET Mar 04 $22 −$20 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8AM ET Mar 03 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET Mar 03 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Mar 01 $4 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1PM ET Feb 28 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9AM ET Feb 28 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10AM ET Feb 28 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2PM ET Feb 26 $4 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7AM ET Feb 26 $3 +$5 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 17 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 17 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 15 $8 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $58 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $58 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $58 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $58 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $41 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $34 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 78d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 79d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $8 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.31 · official $223.31 (match) · 207 history records