Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4522…8bb3 sports 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2
other 22% −$5
politics 19% −$4
crypto 9% −$2
economics 6% +$1
world 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 162 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage162d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 12 $38 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $38 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 05 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $140 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $61 $0 -1%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $31 7d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $36 20d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $37 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 33d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 94d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 94d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 94d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $38 94d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $43 94d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $43 95d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $41 95d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $41 95d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $32 95d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $32 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $42 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $42 95d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $42 96d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $42 96d
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $35 96d
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $35 96d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 96d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 96d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 94¢ $45 97d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 94¢ $45 97d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $33 97d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $33 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.18 · official $40.18 (match) · 594 history records