Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4522…4c82 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-7%) realized −$54 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$199
other 27% +$34
world 4% −$2
crypto 2% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.5% -27.1% 53% 42% -31.5%
≤30d 19 -19.5% -27.1% 53% 42% -31.5%
≤90d 19 -19.5% -27.1% 53% 42% -31.5%
all 19 -19.5% -27.1% 53% 42% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 42% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 32% -38.1%
15% -40.5% 26% -44.1%
20% -46.3% 16% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions25
Markets (closed)19 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 88¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 78¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 17¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 +$19 +22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $20 +$4 +20%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $56 +$5 +8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $54 +$14 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 21 $197 −$142 -72%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $62 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 51m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 54m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $26 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $71 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 73¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $5 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 10h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 78¢ $3 10h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $3 10h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 10h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 10h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $3 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $10 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.62 · official $106.63 (match) · 82 history records