Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4523…581a other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,845 (+13%) realized +$2,836 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%53W / 44L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$4,839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days−$597
14 days−$866
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,521
sports 36% +$667
politics 10% −$62
weather 1% +$443
crypto 1% −$152
world 1% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -35.4% -41.6% 39% 39% -30.8%
≤30d 36 -27.2% -34.1% 39% 39% -17.4%
≤90d 38 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 42% -12.8%
all 97 +3.5% -6.3% 55% 53% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 53% +3.8%
10% -15.3% 51% -6.1%
15% -23.5% 48% -15.2%
20% -31.0% 43% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$130 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$4,839
Realized+$2,836
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 44
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions22
Markets (closed)97 / 119
History coverage698d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,600 $1,591 −$9 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $400 $476 +$76 (+19%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $400 $432 +$32 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $320 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $200 $125 −$75 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $130 $113 −$17 (-13%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $70 $76 +$6 (+9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-14%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$70 +138%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $266 +$184 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $163 +$281 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$58 -57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $162 +$170 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$214 +105%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? Jun 09 $260 +$443 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$11 +53%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Apr 08 $200 +$226 +113%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $700 +$632 +90%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 28 $150 +$113 +75%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? Oct 21 $300 +$226 +75%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Sep 08 $138 +$62 +45%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $100 +$176 +176%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Sep 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $400 +$54 +13%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 19 $400 +$290 +72%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $200 +$1,001 +500%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 15 $320 +$246 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 39¢ $71 42h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 42h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $325 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $112 42h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 42h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $266 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $161 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $502 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $602 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $502 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 26¢ $43 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,838.84 · official $4,838.84 (match) · 282 history records