Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4524…dc71
crypto · 888 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,940 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,940 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses344 / 544
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)888 / 888
History coverage79d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 888 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$324
14 days−$262
30 days−$2,875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $305 −$82 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $507 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $402 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $206 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $106 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$96 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $402 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $152 −$13 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $127 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $327 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $407 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $227 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $127 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$50 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $84 +$28 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $206 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $103 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $203 −$58 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $129 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $204 +$92 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $100 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $228 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $203 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $228 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $243 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $83 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $76 +$8 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $260 +$30 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $613 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $312 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $102 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$1,977
other 6% −$935
sports 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $29 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $107 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $87 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $97 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $118 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 24% -14.5%
≤30d 845 -17.9% -25.7% 39% 34% -19.9%
≤90d 888 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 34% -20.0%
all 888 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 34% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 34% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 30% -27.6%
15% -38.8% 27% -34.6%
20% -44.8% 24% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2925 history records