Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4527…f137 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$1,296 · open −$1,166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$623per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days+$168
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$598
economics 18% +$81
tech 13% −$107
other 12% −$19
politics 9% +$12
finance 2% −$66
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -29.8%
≤30d 13 -3.8% -13.0% 31% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 21 +94.7% +76.1% 48% 14% -5.0%
all 29 +66.7% +50.8% 59% 14% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.8% 14% -6.2%
10% +36.4% 14% -15.2%
15% +23.2% 10% -23.4%
20% +11.1% 10% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$19 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$6,702
Realized+$1,296
Unrealized−$1,166
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)29 / 38
History coverage252d
Avg bet$623
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $1,004 $1,881 +$877 (+87%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,778 $1,778 −$1 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 92¢ $644 $1,098 +$454 (+70%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $911 $919 +$7 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $531 $527 −$3 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $1,004 $128 −$877 (-87%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $107 $98 −$9 (-9%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $350 $60 −$290 (-83%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$5 -22%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 12 $114 −$17 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $180 +$191 +106%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 05 $476 −$107 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 −$2 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $660 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $2,695 $0 -0%
Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $249 +$2 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 22 $2,522 +$367 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 22 $151 +$9 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $415 −$67 -16%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%? Apr 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $16 +$10 +67%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $333 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $50 −$13 -25%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 26 $947 +$53 +6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 28 $991 +$5 +0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 28 $151 +$5 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $22 +$7 +30%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 31 $100 +$9 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jan 31 $1,078 +$22 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch? Oct 29 $89 +$1 +1%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $1,779 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $540 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 1h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $97 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $280 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $91 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $88 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $86 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $17 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $79 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $30 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $55 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 8d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 8d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 8d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 8d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 8d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,701.59 · official $6,701.59 (match) · 451 history records