Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4528…7051 other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 239L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 27% −$25
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage135d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $453 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $391 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $436 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $459 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $524 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $310 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $432 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $381 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $312 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 3h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 6h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $4 7h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 8h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 17h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 19h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 22h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 23h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 25h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 29h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 37h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 41h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1363 history records