Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x4529…638f crypto 1736 markets active 2d ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$533 (+1%) realized +$533 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate90%1560W / 176L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$59
14 days+$84
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +2.3% -7.4% 92% 25% -7.5%
≤30d 248 +1.2% -8.4% 91% 21% -8.6%
≤90d 1288 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 18% -8.9%
all 1736 +0.7% -8.9% 90% 21% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 21% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 4% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1560 / 176
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1736 / 1736
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1736 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$19 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$23 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$18 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$5 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $33 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $14 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $33 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records