Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x452f…9b78 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+8%) realized +$64 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$172
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$429
other 43% −$224
crypto 6% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.0% +74.7% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤30d 7 +10.7% +0.2% 43% 43% +9.0%
≤90d 8 -3.1% -12.3% 38% 38% -0.0%
all 9 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 33% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -6.0%
10% -29.5% 33% -15.0%
15% -36.3% 33% -23.2%
20% -42.6% 33% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$124 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage172d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $196 $196 +$0 (+0%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $70 $98 +$28 (+39%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $64 $87 +$24 (+38%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $199 +$186 +93%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $69 +$83 +120%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $200 +$525 +262%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 13 $200 −$195 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $197 −$191 -97%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $97 −$94 -97%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $199 1h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $65 19h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $72 19h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $72 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $385 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $199 29h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $152 10d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 45¢ $69 10d
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 16¢ $99 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $725 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $200 15d
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) BUY Knicks 9¢ $200 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 26d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $94 28d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $97 31d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 31d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 60¢ $50 172d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 70¢ $23 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.03 · official $459.20 (match) · 19 history records