Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4537…fd02 sports 579 markets active 0h ago coverage 1198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,543 (-4%) realized −$2,751 · open +$208
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%293W / 264L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$218
14 days−$180
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,154
crypto 16% +$876
other 14% −$1,159
finance 2% −$61
world 1% −$160
culture 0% −$200
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 46% -17.1%
≤30d 159 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 49% -5.6%
≤90d 246 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 47% -11.6%
all 557 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 42% -12.2%
10% -22.2% 38% -20.6%
15% -29.7% 34% -28.3%
20% -36.6% 28% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$73 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1198d coverage
Net worth$1,542
Realized−$2,751
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses293 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions14
Markets (closed)557 / 579
History coverage1198d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $300 $528 +$228 (+76%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $177 $138 −$39 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $128 $124 −$4 (-3%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Comesana (-1.5) vs Canas (+1.5) Comesana 47¢ 50¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+7%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi Luca Nardi 62¢ 62¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-68%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Canas Francisco Comesana 62¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $76 +$65 +86%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $165 −$165 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $51 −$34 -68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $76 +$43 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Jun 20 $76 +$43 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Torres (-1.5) vs Gomez (+1.5) Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $61 +$68 +111%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U Jun 20 $77 +$169 +221%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 −$2 -3%
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $122 −$62 -51%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $76 +$38 +50%
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $66 +$43 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$53 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $101 −$54 -53%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$65 +86%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$59 +77%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Set Handicap: Kicker (-1.5) vs Coria (+1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$7 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$9 -17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$31 -62%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $81 −$44 -54%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $127 +$101 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$21 -41%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Jong (-1.5) vs Baena (+1.5) Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$51 +84%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $76 +$30 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$13 +21%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$49 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $76 +$30 +40%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$45 -45%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $76 +$58 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND France leading at halftime BUY 20¢ $36 20m
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $76 30m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can SELL Francisco Comesana 24¢ $28 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 61¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 62¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi BUY Luca Nardi 62¢ $76 2h
Set Handicap: Comesana (-1.5) vs Canas (+1.5) BUY Comesana 47¢ $76 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can SELL Francisco Comesana 67¢ $74 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 67¢ $76 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026 BUY $26 20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 22h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Tommy Paul 19¢ $16 23h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 57¢ $51 23h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 13¢ $10 24h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $9 24h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $29 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $76 25h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $6 28h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $126 29h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $0 29h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $7 30h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $4 31h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $1 31h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 28¢ $1 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 38h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $26 43h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $76 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 40¢ $67 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O SELL $0 44h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $26 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,542.04 · official $1,577.05 · 1782 history records