Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x4537…d7a6 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-33%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -91% what you keep after slip
Net edge-91%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1
culture 33% −$9
crypto 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-90.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -89.7% -90.7% 0% 0% -84.1%
all 2 -89.7% -90.7% 0% 0% -84.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -90.7% 0% -84.1%
10% -91.6% 0% -85.6%
15% -92.4% 0% -87.0%
20% -93.1% 0% -88.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -90% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $12 −$9 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and SELL Yes 4¢ $2 35d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and BUY Yes 19¢ $12 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.47 · official $20.49 (match) · 20 history records