Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x453b…db4a sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,319 (+13%) realized +$2,320 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%75W / 57L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$237
14 days−$40
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,287
other 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -42.7% -48.1% 40% 40% -43.2%
≤30d 26 -18.6% -26.4% 46% 46% -25.3%
≤90d 79 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 53% -11.0%
all 132 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 55% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 55% +2.3%
10% -11.4% 53% -7.5%
15% -20.0% 46% -16.4%
20% -27.8% 35% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$102 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$2,320
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses75 / 57
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage169d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $139 −$138 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $144 +$56 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $69 +$131 +188%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $90 +$110 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $157 +$75 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $111 +$89 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $143 −$142 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $105 +$95 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $92 −$90 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $113 +$87 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$105 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $104 +$46 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $147 −$144 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $120 −$117 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 06 $64 +$36 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $145 +$55 +38%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $153 +$58 +38%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $121 +$79 +65%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $57 +$43 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $103 −$3 -3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $138 +$60 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $167 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 31h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $139 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $144 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $75 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $73 8d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $69 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $90 10d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $157 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 12d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 13d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $111 14d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $131 15d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $143 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 21d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 23d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $105 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $92 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $89 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $113 30d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $91 31d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $95 32d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $139 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.00 · official $165.00 (match) · 224 history records