Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x453b…1575 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$212 (+2%) realized +$139 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days+$659
14 days−$384
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$711
tech 29% +$160
finance 28% +$239
other 1% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 42% 33% -0.1%
≤30d 22 -16.1% -24.1% 32% 27% -13.0%
≤90d 22 -16.1% -24.1% 32% 27% -13.0%
all 22 -16.1% -24.1% 32% 27% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 27% -13.0%
10% -31.4% 18% -21.3%
15% -38.0% 18% -28.9%
20% -44.1% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$564) neutral
Persistence
early -44% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$140 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage24d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $630 $743 +$113 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 24¢ 18¢ $158 $118 −$40 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 19 $759 +$138 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $439 −$330 -75%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 18 $716 −$158 -22%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $1,625 +$178 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $747 −$205 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $195 +$8 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $564 −$20 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $568 +$1,131 +199%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $206 −$124 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $178 +$207 +116%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $185 −$66 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $131 −$100 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $357 −$226 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $140 −$139 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $466 −$325 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $376 −$162 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $105 −$82 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $167 −$129 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $108 +$59 +54%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $88 +$66 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 29 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $465 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 24¢ $167 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $180 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 31¢ $180 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $110 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $109 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $333 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $106 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 40¢ $118 13h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 18¢ $558 13h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 22¢ $716 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 49¢ $619 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $530 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $506 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $24 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $283 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $301 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $442 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $29 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $58 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $15 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $15 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $25 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $543 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $542 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $747 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $134 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.17 · official $861.17 (match) · 92 history records