Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x453c…ae42 other 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$402 (+1%) realized +$404 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%191W / 112L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$322
7 days−$2,381
14 days−$1,806
30 days−$1,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$720
sports 20% −$447
politics 9% +$267
finance 9% −$993
world 4% −$16
crypto 3% +$160
culture 2% −$60
tech 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -54.9% -59.2% 34% 25% -25.3%
≤30d 80 -28.2% -35.1% 54% 34% -14.6%
≤90d 277 -4.2% -13.3% 64% 40% -10.4%
all 303 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 41% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -10.3%
10% -22.6% 25% -18.9%
15% -30.1% 16% -26.7%
20% -36.9% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$61 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$404
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses191 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage107d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $111 +$22 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $373 −$261 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $355 +$270 +76%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,152 +$181 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$65 -63%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $999 +$158 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $228 −$225 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $999 +$73 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 +$36 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $903 +$119 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $999 +$199 +20%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 24 $116 −$116 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 24 $235 −$235 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 24 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $992 +$56 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $936 +$90 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $58 −$37 -64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $921 +$1 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $674 +$41 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $571 +$31 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $202 37m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $302 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $111 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $112 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $373 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $355 9h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,152 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $302 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $999 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $130 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $798 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $903 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $999 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.31 · official $198.31 (match) · 1019 history records