Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x453f…6b3b crypto 1678 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate84%1413W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day163.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -0.8% -10.3% 89% 15% -10.1%
≤30d 1676 -1.0% -10.4% 84% 21% -10.6%
≤90d 1676 -1.0% -10.4% 84% 21% -10.6%
all 1676 -1.0% -10.4% 84% 21% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 21% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 5% -19.1%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1413 / 263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1676 / 1678
History coverage13d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day163.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$7 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$8 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records