Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4541…b47d other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$23
politics 17% −$4
tech 4% −$1
sports 3% −$3
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.5% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 75 -2.8% -12.1% 8% 4% -9.7%
all 75 -2.8% -12.1% 8% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage79d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $175 $175 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $324 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $335 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $334 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +2%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $528 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $277 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $282 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $290 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $282 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $516 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $54 3d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 20d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $59 20d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $59 20d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $105 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 26d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $4 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 28d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 28d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 33d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $256 33d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $279 34d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $280 34d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $267 43d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $267 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.30 · official $175.30 (match) · 195 history records