Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4546…41d4 crypto 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 661d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$698 (-6%) realized −$698 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%132W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$25
14 days−$341
30 days−$914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,278
politics 2% −$95
other 1% −$20
sports 0% −$12
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -8.4% -17.2% 50% 44% -10.7%
≤30d 221 -12.0% -20.4% 37% 31% -21.2%
≤90d 352 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 30% -23.9%
all 399 -22.6% -30.0% 33% 29% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 29% -23.7%
10% -36.7% 24% -31.0%
15% -42.8% 19% -37.7%
20% -48.4% 16% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

661d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$698
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses132 / 267
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 399
History coverage661d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 399 Trades
no open positions (142 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $167 −$34 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$57 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $69 +$50 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $235 +$47 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $74 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $126 −$37 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $157 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $132 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $129 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$36 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$18 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$18 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$11 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$26 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$16 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $179 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2677 history records