Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$2

14 days+$2

30 days+$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	50¢	48¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-5%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	T1	52¢	34¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-34%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$1	+$2	+155%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 85% +$1

sports 15% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	52¢	$1	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$3	9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1	9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+131.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+155.4%	+131.1%	100%	100%	+131.1%
≤30d	1	+155.4%	+131.1%	100%	100%	+131.1%
≤90d	1	+155.4%	+131.1%	100%	100%	+131.1%
all	1	+155.4%	+131.1%	100%	100%	+131.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+131.1%	100%	+131.1%
10%	+109.0%	100%	+109.0%
15%	+88.8%	100%	+88.8%
20%	+70.3%	100%	+70.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.