Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
45 0x454a…ad18 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+21%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$23
world 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.6% +1.0% 60% 60% +17.9%
≤30d 5 +11.6% +1.0% 60% 60% +17.9%
≤90d 5 +11.6% +1.0% 60% 60% +17.9%
all 5 +11.6% +1.0% 60% 60% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 60% +17.9%
10% -8.7% 60% +6.6%
15% -17.5% 60% -3.7%
20% -25.6% 60% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.67 · official $38.67 (match) · 11 history records