Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
45 0x454a…0f14 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$252 (-5%) realized −$269 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$155
14 days−$248
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$229
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.9% -13.1% 75% 47% -13.0%
≤30d 46 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 50% -13.9%
≤90d 46 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 50% -13.9%
all 46 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 50% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 50% -13.9%
10% -18.6% 30% -22.1%
15% -26.5% 22% -29.6%
20% -33.7% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$75 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage13d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 80¢ 100¢ $65 $82 +$17 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $116 +$68 +59%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 +$1 +76%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $7 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $68 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $75 +$19 +25%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $73 +$2 +3%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $65 +$8 +12%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 +$2 +11%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $17 +$2 +11%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$5 +39%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $386 −$279 -72%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $156 +$87 +56%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $125 +$5 +4%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $81 +$46 +57%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $49 +$3 +6%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $28 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $304 +$15 +5%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $300 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $85 +$12 +14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 +$4 +3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $263 +$42 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $87 +$18 +21%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $235 +$31 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $200 +$19 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$33 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$14 +66%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$8 +8%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $28 +$16 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $422 −$203 -48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $412 +$16 +4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 79¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 82¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $2 22h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $116 22h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 56¢ $12 35h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $12 37h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $7 45h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 57¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 70¢ $91 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $54 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 90¢ $9 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 75¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 50¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 50¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 63¢ $63 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 63¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $35 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $17 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $38 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.54 · official $81.54 (match) · 164 history records