Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

45 0x454c…9664 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$111 (+18%) realized +$111 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+48.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+64.2%	+48.6%	53%	47%	+24.9%
≤30d	19	+64.2%	+48.6%	53%	47%	+24.9%
≤90d	19	+64.2%	+48.6%	53%	47%	+24.9%
all	19	+64.2%	+48.6%	53%	47%	+24.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+48.6%	47%	+24.9%
10% ← realistic here	+34.4%	47%	+12.9%
15%	+21.4%	42%	+2.0%
20%	+9.5%	42%	-8.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +163% → late -24% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$53 vs −$32 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$111

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$87	+166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 25	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$43	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 25	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 25	$32	+$7	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$45	+85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 25	$5	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$66	+252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 25	$4	+$30	+837%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$64	+244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 25	$53	+$147	+280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 25	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$38	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$52	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$52	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	61¢	$96	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$52	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$53	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$39	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$27	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$26	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$29	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$4	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$13	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$26	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records