Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x454c…99fe crypto 178 markets active 2d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-28%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%20W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$107
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$87
other 4% −$11
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -58.6% -62.6% 9% 9% -52.2%
≤30d 178 -33.3% -39.7% 11% 11% -40.4%
≤90d 178 -33.3% -39.7% 11% 11% -40.4%
all 178 -33.3% -39.7% 11% 11% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 11% -40.4%
10% -45.5% 11% -46.1%
15% -50.7% 11% -51.3%
20% -55.6% 11% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses20 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$9 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records